The 2012 Africa Cup of Nations gets underway this week and www.theelastico.com 's Chris Atkins will be blogging for MirrorFootball throughout the tournament. To get you in the mood, here's his preview of the runners and riders...***
The Africa Cup of Nations is an unusual tournament in the eyes of the European audience, in that its very existence is seen as a major nuisance to the footballing calendar. However, beyond this wall of pessimism provoked every two years by managers deprived of their leading lights, there is a football competition that can provide high-quality individual play, a glimpse at some of world football's rising stars and above all, a completely unpredictable outcome.
The 2012 edition of the Cup of Nations in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon threatens to be one of the most unpredictable yet, with several of the continent's super-powers including Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Cameroon sat at home wondering what might have been. Their absence throws the competition wide open, presenting an opportunity for a 'smaller' nation to progress further than would have been expected.
As far as favourites go, it is hard to look past Ghana and Ivory Coast who (alongside Egypt) have been Africa's major footballing powers for some time. However, neither side has any silverware to show for their efforts. The Black Stars haven't tasted success since 1982 and Ivory Coast's only victory in the Cup of Nations came exactly twenty-years ago.
On paper, Ghana are the most complete side in the tournament, with quality in all areas of the pitch. Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu, Derek Boateng, Sulley Muntari and Kwadro Asamoah provide physicality and technique across the midfield, whilst the whole country will be looking to Marseille's tricky wide-man André Ayew for the extra creativity needed to unlock the best defences. The onus will then be on Sunderland-owned striker Asamoah Gyan, or André's younger brother Jordan Ayew, to score the goals that will fire Ghana to success.
For Ivory Coast, it is very much approaching 'last-chance saloon' for some of the country's 'Golden Generation'. For the likes of Kolo Toure, Didier Zokora and Didier Drogba, in the absence of several of Africa's major forces, they could not have wished for a better chance to sign off in style. Yaya Toure will command from midfield, alongside Cheick Tiote, whilst Salomon Kalou and Gervinho will be charged with creating opportunities for Drogba and CSKA Moscow's free-scoring striker Seydou Doumbia. Coach François Zahoui's side have a golden-chance to shake-off their tag of perennial underachievers.
With the two favourites set to be damned at home should they fail to at least reach the final, there is then a big opportunity for the likes of Senegal and Morocco to cause a shock.
Senegal in particular boast some formidable attacking fire-power that if given sufficient service can fire the Lions of Teranga to success in next month's final. Newcastle fans will no doubt point to top-scorer Demba Ba and new signing Papiss Cisse as Senegal's attacking stars, but Lille's Moussa Sow has also been prolific in France over the past eighteen months and is likely to feature. Classy former Charlton defender Souleymane Diawara will marshall the defence, Armand Traore plays at left full-back, whilst Birmingham's Guirane N'Daw and Wigan's Mohamed Diame are part of a combative midfield. Watch for tricky Fenerbahce winger Issiar Dia to supply the side's creativity from the flanks.
For Morocco, creativity should not be an issue. Instead, the task facing Belgian manager Eric Gerets is to combine his creative talents in a manner that does not unbalance the rest of the side. While Marouane Chamakh will attempt to recapture past glories up-front, the likes of Adel Taarabt, former-Chelsea youngster Mbark Boussoufa and rising Montpellier star Younes Belhanda will attempt to inspire from midfield. With Boussoufa and fellow attacking midfielder Mehdi Carcela important players in the Anzhi revolution and although they're not well-known in the UK , they should not be underestimated. Morocco can also boast one of the tournament's strongest defences with Udinese star Mehdi Benatia central to their hopes. The 'Lions of the Atlas' have failed to shine in recent years, but could well be dark-horses for the 2012 prize.
In Group A, Senegal and Zambia will be the pre-tournament favourites to progress. Zambia have their best side since a tragic air-crash wiped out an entire generation in 1994 and in former Pompey man Collins Mbesuma, have a striker with a good goalscoring record at higher levels. Libya will be the neutrals favourite, with the post-Gaddafi side performing well above expectations to qualify for the tournament. However, the one side who could prove wild-cards in the tournament are unfancied hosts Equatorial Guinea. It would be dangerous to discount any host nation and the Central Africans will be desperate to impress in front of their home fans.
Group B should be a case of Ivory Coast and one other. Burkina Faso have some outstanding players in among their squad and will also be hopeful of progression. Midfielder Charles Kabore, defender Bakary Kone and star-man Alain Traore are all based in France and enjoying fine campaigns for their clubs. In Manucho, Flavio and Nando Rafael, Angola have potential goal-scorers, but do not convince as an all-round squad. The Palancas Negras will still be hopeful of qualification, but will need top performances from their lesser-rated defence. Defence is one area Sudan have excelled in recent times and will hope to bring that form into the tournament. However, the East Africans do lack quality in the side and it is a struggle to see where the goals will come from.
Morocco in Group C will be feeling vulnerable ahead of the tournament, with Tunisia and hosts Gabon both realistic qualifiers for the later stages. Gabon will look to Saint-Etienne striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to inspire them to glory in front of fervent home support, while Tunisia have several quality players in the squad, even if they are not as strong as in previous years. Niger may be making their AFCON debut, but having emerged from a qualifying section that saw both Egypt and South Africa eliminated, could prove perilous for one of the group's giants.
Of the big four, Ghana perhaps face the toughest test at the Group Stage, with both Mali and Guinea capable of inflicting damage from Group D. Of the pair, Mali will count themselves as favourites to qualify alongside the Black Stars, with the likes of Seydou Keita, Modibo Maiga and Garra Dembele capable of carrying The Eagles far in the competition. Fourth side Botswana feature a mainly home based squad, but should not be discounted after topping a qualifying group including both Tunisia and Togo.
*** Follow Chris on Twitter at @chris_elastico
The Africa Cup of Nations is an unusual tournament in the eyes of the European audience, in that its very existence is seen as a major nuisance to the footballing calendar. However, beyond this wall of pessimism provoked every two years by managers deprived of their leading lights, there is a football competition that can provide high-quality individual play, a glimpse at some of world football's rising stars and above all, a completely unpredictable outcome.
The 2012 edition of the Cup of Nations in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon threatens to be one of the most unpredictable yet, with several of the continent's super-powers including Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Cameroon sat at home wondering what might have been. Their absence throws the competition wide open, presenting an opportunity for a 'smaller' nation to progress further than would have been expected.
As far as favourites go, it is hard to look past Ghana and Ivory Coast who (alongside Egypt) have been Africa's major footballing powers for some time. However, neither side has any silverware to show for their efforts. The Black Stars haven't tasted success since 1982 and Ivory Coast's only victory in the Cup of Nations came exactly twenty-years ago.
On paper, Ghana are the most complete side in the tournament, with quality in all areas of the pitch. Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu, Derek Boateng, Sulley Muntari and Kwadro Asamoah provide physicality and technique across the midfield, whilst the whole country will be looking to Marseille's tricky wide-man André Ayew for the extra creativity needed to unlock the best defences. The onus will then be on Sunderland-owned striker Asamoah Gyan, or André's younger brother Jordan Ayew, to score the goals that will fire Ghana to success.
For Ivory Coast, it is very much approaching 'last-chance saloon' for some of the country's 'Golden Generation'. For the likes of Kolo Toure, Didier Zokora and Didier Drogba, in the absence of several of Africa's major forces, they could not have wished for a better chance to sign off in style. Yaya Toure will command from midfield, alongside Cheick Tiote, whilst Salomon Kalou and Gervinho will be charged with creating opportunities for Drogba and CSKA Moscow's free-scoring striker Seydou Doumbia. Coach François Zahoui's side have a golden-chance to shake-off their tag of perennial underachievers.
With the two favourites set to be damned at home should they fail to at least reach the final, there is then a big opportunity for the likes of Senegal and Morocco to cause a shock.
Senegal in particular boast some formidable attacking fire-power that if given sufficient service can fire the Lions of Teranga to success in next month's final. Newcastle fans will no doubt point to top-scorer Demba Ba and new signing Papiss Cisse as Senegal's attacking stars, but Lille's Moussa Sow has also been prolific in France over the past eighteen months and is likely to feature. Classy former Charlton defender Souleymane Diawara will marshall the defence, Armand Traore plays at left full-back, whilst Birmingham's Guirane N'Daw and Wigan's Mohamed Diame are part of a combative midfield. Watch for tricky Fenerbahce winger Issiar Dia to supply the side's creativity from the flanks.
For Morocco, creativity should not be an issue. Instead, the task facing Belgian manager Eric Gerets is to combine his creative talents in a manner that does not unbalance the rest of the side. While Marouane Chamakh will attempt to recapture past glories up-front, the likes of Adel Taarabt, former-Chelsea youngster Mbark Boussoufa and rising Montpellier star Younes Belhanda will attempt to inspire from midfield. With Boussoufa and fellow attacking midfielder Mehdi Carcela important players in the Anzhi revolution and although they're not well-known in the UK , they should not be underestimated. Morocco can also boast one of the tournament's strongest defences with Udinese star Mehdi Benatia central to their hopes. The 'Lions of the Atlas' have failed to shine in recent years, but could well be dark-horses for the 2012 prize.
In Group A, Senegal and Zambia will be the pre-tournament favourites to progress. Zambia have their best side since a tragic air-crash wiped out an entire generation in 1994 and in former Pompey man Collins Mbesuma, have a striker with a good goalscoring record at higher levels. Libya will be the neutrals favourite, with the post-Gaddafi side performing well above expectations to qualify for the tournament. However, the one side who could prove wild-cards in the tournament are unfancied hosts Equatorial Guinea. It would be dangerous to discount any host nation and the Central Africans will be desperate to impress in front of their home fans.
Group B should be a case of Ivory Coast and one other. Burkina Faso have some outstanding players in among their squad and will also be hopeful of progression. Midfielder Charles Kabore, defender Bakary Kone and star-man Alain Traore are all based in France and enjoying fine campaigns for their clubs. In Manucho, Flavio and Nando Rafael, Angola have potential goal-scorers, but do not convince as an all-round squad. The Palancas Negras will still be hopeful of qualification, but will need top performances from their lesser-rated defence. Defence is one area Sudan have excelled in recent times and will hope to bring that form into the tournament. However, the East Africans do lack quality in the side and it is a struggle to see where the goals will come from.
Morocco in Group C will be feeling vulnerable ahead of the tournament, with Tunisia and hosts Gabon both realistic qualifiers for the later stages. Gabon will look to Saint-Etienne striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to inspire them to glory in front of fervent home support, while Tunisia have several quality players in the squad, even if they are not as strong as in previous years. Niger may be making their AFCON debut, but having emerged from a qualifying section that saw both Egypt and South Africa eliminated, could prove perilous for one of the group's giants.
Of the big four, Ghana perhaps face the toughest test at the Group Stage, with both Mali and Guinea capable of inflicting damage from Group D. Of the pair, Mali will count themselves as favourites to qualify alongside the Black Stars, with the likes of Seydou Keita, Modibo Maiga and Garra Dembele capable of carrying The Eagles far in the competition. Fourth side Botswana feature a mainly home based squad, but should not be discounted after topping a qualifying group including both Tunisia and Togo.
*** Follow Chris on Twitter at @chris_elastico
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